S&P 500 Aug - Oct Historical performances - I was curious about the historic performance of the S&P 500 during these months and found numerous articles written about this occurrence, so I figured I would try to analyze the data.

I made a spreadsheet and calculated the average and a weighted average to account for recency. I plan to create a chart to show this at some point in the near future.

I looked at Daily Chart for $SPY, between 1 Aug and 31 Oct, for the years 2016-2022. I found the biggest price drop in these time periods because of the historic "trend" of Aug-Sep having poor market performance; I included Oct just for fun, maybe the pullback was late due to other factors?

Of all of the data, the earliest start of the pullback was 1 Aug (2019) and latest was 31 Oct (2016). The length of time of the pullback was anywhere from 4 days to 69 days (Nice 😎), with an average of 32 days. The % pullback was, from 2016-2022 respectively: -3.30%, -2.84%, -11.38%, -6.36%, -10.86%, -6.10%, and -19.37%.

The average loss of the trend & timeframe, per year, is -8.60% and calculated, in the style of a WMA, was -10.54%.

I also found a table of CPI (CPI-U) that ranged from 1913-2023, which was based upon 1982, used as a base of 100. The change from July - Oct, of 2016-2022 is as follows (2016 to 2022, respectively): +1.08%, +1.88%, +0.88%, +0.77%, +1.29%, +3.59%, and +1.74%.

I am sure I made some mistakes, but overall, I am confident on my analysis.

Of course, the market doesn't always behave like you would expect it to. We shall see what happens! I'm interested to see if my forecast comes to fruition.

I'm interested to hear any counter-arguments or criticisms, so feel free to poke holes in my work.

Let 'er rip!